Predicting the Playoffs

I'm back and fully prepared to be wrong.

With the beginning of the NBA playoffs comes predictions from everyone and their mother (seriously, some guy at ESPN has his mother predict the playoffs every year, she's not bad if I remember correctly). I figured I'd join in.

My analysis comes mainly from a weighted regression analysis of relevant team statistics from the season. I type in numbers, the computer spits out answers. This method has had decent success. Two years ago it predicted the conference runner-ups (Suns and Magic) to meet in the Finals. Unfortunately for them, the Lakers and Celtics both kicked it up a notch in the playoffs, something the formula can't predict. Last year went haywire after the Spurs were ousted in the first round. Let's hope that doesn't happen again.

On to the picks.

First Round:


Bulls v. Sixers
I won't waste your time. The Bulls are the highest rated Eastern Conference team. They had the best defense and best overall efficiency differential. They were also the best rebounding team in the league. The only hit they took was in total team PER. The Sixers were a very good defensive team, but had an average offense. They did an excellent job not turning the ball over, but saw trouble rebounding. The Sixers actually ended up being the 3rd highest rated team out East. Unfortunately, their second half skid landed them a tough first round match-up.

Pick: Bulls

Celtics v. Hawks
So the Celtics finished higher in the standings, but the Hawks will have home court. Boston was an elite defensive team during the second half, but is poor at rebounding. They move the ball well and hit shots on offense, getting enough done while they grind down opponents at the other end. Atlanta's shot in this series will be on the offensive end. They have solid assist/turnover numbers and shoot well enough. Will they be able to do this against the lockdown Celtics? The computer believes so and while this would be one place where I might be inclined to disagree, I trust the Hawks ability to get only to the second round.

Pick: Hawks


Pacers v. Magic
Dwight Howard isn't playing. That should be enough right there. The Magic were not a very good team to begin with and will only be worse without their best player. The Pacers, on the other hand, went under the radar to claim the number 3 spot and have a better winning percentage than the Lakers. They ended up somewhere around 8th-10th in almost every category, with the only exception being assist/turnover numbers, indicative of their post-heavy style of play. The Magic rate out as the worst Eastern Conference team. Done and done.

Pick: Pacers


Heat v. Knicks
This will be a star-studded one. And while I like the intrigue of New York unseating the Big 3, I just don't see it. Miami had a top-5 offense and defense, while the Knicks relied heavily on their much improved defensive prowess and still finished behind Miami. It will be an entertaining one, for sure, and we can hope for 7 games, but overall the Heat are too loaded.

Pick: Heat


Spurs v. Jazz
Who led the league in offensive efficiency? None other than the Spurs, a team that won 4 championships with elite defense. They also had the best team PER. The Jazz, while riding an impressive offense to this playoff berth, were the lowest rated playoff team. Their frontcourt quality and depth might be enough to extend this series, but overall San Antonio will be too much.

Pick: Spurs


Grizzlies v. Clippers
Memphis seems to be a trendy pick due to their upset last year. The computer doesn't see it. They rate as the 7th best Western Conference team, well behind their opponent Clippers. Zach Randolph was a revelation last year, but can he do it again? Is the addition of Rudy Gay enough to carry them? Will Tony Allen shut down Chris Paul? It's possible, but I think the high-octane Clippers offense will be enough to get them past the first round.

Pick: Clippers


Lakers v. Nuggets
And here's the first big upset. Denver and LA stand at 6th and 7th in the computer standings and its very close. It again seems prudent to go against the computer, but I think the match-up could be good for the Nuggets. Denver will use the speed of Ty Lawson coupled with the athleticism of Afflao, Faried, and McGee to keep the Lakers disoriented. They'll have to be smart against the Lakers bigs and Afflalo will have to disrupt Kobe, but I think this is well within reason.

Pick: Nuggets


Thunder v. Mavericks
A first-round rematch of last years conference finals, it will be interesting to see if the Thunder can shake the demons of last years defeat. I think they'll be fine. They computer has a wide disparity between these two teams and I think the youth of Oklahoma City will be too much for Dallas. OKC will have plenty of bodies to throw at Dirk again and the other options in Dallas are limited.

Pick: Thunder


Second Round:


Bulls v. Hawks
The Hawks will be tasked with scoring enough to beat the two elite offenses of the league. I don't think they'll have enough. The Bulls point of attack with Derrick Rose and low post passing will give the Atlanta D trouble while the destructive second unit will be able to flood the strong side against Joe Johnson.

Pick: Bulls


Heat v. Pacers
I think this one will be tough for the Heat. Really tough. The computer doesn't think so, but I think the size and athleticism of the Pacers will give the wing-heavy offense of the Heat some problems. Hibbert and West will also be able to play over the top of much of the Heat's frontcourt. While I think this will be quite the series, I can't pick against the Heat just yet.

Pick: Heat


Spurs v. Clippers
There will be points. And great point guard play. At the end of the day, the Spurs have the capability for stops more so than the Clippers and their ability to stretch the floor will tax the wings of LA.

Pick: Spurs


Thunder v. Nuggets
And even more points. This will be an insanely exciting offensive series and the first team to miss might be the loser. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, a lot of their strengths can also be strengths for the Thunder. Playing uptempo, a fast point guard, and an athletic shot blocking big man apply to both teams. It's just that OKC did it better than Denver throughout the season and will continue in the postseason.

Pick: Thunder


Conference Finals:


Bulls v. Heat
As you can tell, four teams set themselves apart this postseason. These two teams will meet again for a place in the Finals and this time I think Chicago comes out on top. Their ability to contain wings with their flood-style defense and the return of Rose to orchestrate the offense will prove enough to carry the Bulls.

Pick: Bulls


Spurs v. Thunder
Ok, so the computer isn't much for upsets. The Spurs were rated as the best team and it continues here. I could easily see the Thunder winning this one, but I have to side with the numbers on this one.

Pick: Spurs


Finals:


Bulls v. Spurs
And so San Antonio will have their fifth title. The Bulls defense could be enough to stop the scorching veteran attack of the Spurs, but again, they were pretty solidly the best team by the numbers and I have to stick with that.

Pick: Spurs

The Trade Deadline

None of the biggest pieces were moved on this year's NBA trade deadline. Yet, there was enough activity to keep the pros relevant on the first day of the NCAA tournament. On to the deals.

• Raptors send Leandro Barbosa to the Pacers for a 2012 2nd round pick and cash
• Barbosa gives the Pacers a scorer off the bench and someone who has experience playing as a true point guard. Barbosa has been mostly put in a scoring guard role of late and he excels there (almost 22 points per 40 minutes), but he has had very strong assist rates in the past under the guidance of Steve Nash. For what they gave up, the Pacers got a good deal.
• Grizzlies send Sam Young to the 76ers for the rights to Ricky Sanchez
• Who is Ricky Sanchez? It couldn't matter less. This was strictly a salary dump for Memphis and the NBA requires both teams to trade something, no matter how trivial. The Sixers get another frontcourt body who is a very solid offensive rebounder (9th among small forwards who play more than 10 minutes). However, he's a bad shooter and doesn't really do anything else well enough to warrant large amounts of playing time.
• Spurs send Richard Jefferson and a 2012 1st round pick (lottery protected) to Golden State for Stephen Jackson
• Jackson had been pretty bad for the Bucks and probably won't be much better in San Antonio. Perhaps they were nostalgic for the days of old when Jacko won a title with the Spurs. Jefferson isn't exactly much better, but at least has a specialty in hitting 3's (especially from the corner). The problem is the Warriors have a 3-point shooting small forward in Dorell Wright who is better and 5 years younger. Grabbing another 1st round pick is helpful for the future and they are certain to get it as the Spurs' chances of landing in the lottery this year are low.
• Blazers send Gerald Wallace to the Nets for Mehmet Okur, Shawne Williams, and a 2012 1st round pick (top 3 protected), Blazers send Marcus Camby to Rockets for Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet, and a 2012 2nd round pick
• The Blazers, who are in 12th place despite a +1.9 point differential, are throwing in the towel. They are going to free up money (about 20.5 million) to begin their rebuilding project around LaMarcus Aldridge and Nic Batum. They plan to waive Williams and Okur, Flynn, and Thabeet are all awful. Perhaps the young guys will be able to become serviceable in a new environment, but I don't think they are part of Portland's long-term plan. The 1st round pick is nice and the Nets apparently only protected it top 3 because their list of worthwhile players in the upcoming draft stops after Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Thomas Robinson. 
• The Rockets on the other hand get another true center and an elite rebounder in Camby (he leads the league in total rebound rate). This will help in their push to secure a playoff spot in the west.
• The Nets get a 29 year-old Wallace who obviously is a great rebounder, defender, and energy player, but I don't know if that's what they need now, especially at the cost of a high 1st rounder.
• Lakers send Derek Fisher and a 2012 1st round pick to the Rockets for Jordan Hill, Lakers send Luke Walton, Jason Kapono, and a 2012 1st round pick (lottery protected) to the Cavaliers for Ramon Sessions and Chrisitan Eyenga
• So long, Fish. The Lakers get a great rebounder and excellent finisher at the basket in Hill who can play stretches at either power forward or center. Sessions is a great pick and roll point guard. He doesn't shoot very well, but is worlds better than Fisher everywhere else. Eyenga is a nice throw-in to keep an eye on. The Lakers had to unload their 2 first round picks, but got rid of some dead weight in Walton and Kapono. 
• Cleveland must have really wanted that lottery protected first rounder because the money doesn't make much sense. Kapono makes just over 800,000 which isn't much cap relief and Walton has another year at 5.8 million. 
• The Rockets can see if Fisher can give them anything as Kyle Lowry heals and his veteran presence might be worth keeping around at 3.4 million, which comes off the books at the end of the year. 
• Nuggets send Nene and Clippers send Brian Cook to the Wizards, Wizards send Javale McGee and Rony Turiaf to Denver and Nick Young to the Clippers
• McGee might be a knucklehead, but he's a knucklehead who rebounds well and sends a lot of shots back. Nene is far more polished offensively, but overall their not giving up as much as it might seem, especially when you factor in Nene's 13 million dollars per year as compared to 2.5 million for McGee. Cook is a tough-nosed rebounder with little value elsewhere. The Nuggets plan to waive Turiaf in order to use some of their new found savings on Wilson Chandler. 
• Nick Young is an absolute chucker who can't (or perhaps won't) create shots for anybody but himself. But the price was right for the Clippers, so they can afford to experiment with a real 2 guard in the lineup. 
• Hawks send a 2nd round pick to the Warriors for cash
• Get paid, Joe Johnson.

Overall I really like what the Rockets and Lakers did, adding productive players for the stretch. I think the demolition in Portland may be a year early and they didn't take back a single productive player, but you can't blame them for being frustrated after the bad luck they've had lately. Golden State continues to set themselves up for the future and while I like their outlook, it is predicated on good drafting and patience. The Wizards and Nets continue to make moves that don't really make sense for teams that are in their current situations. 

Bucks/Warriors Trade

On Tuesday the Golden State Warriors traded Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and Kwame Brown to the Milwaukee Bucks for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson. While it doesn't come off as a blockbuster trade and involves two teams that aren't near contention now, I think it made decent sense for both teams.

The Bucks now have another shot creator, which will take some of the burden off of Brandon Jennings. With a usage rate of 26 and 17 field goal attempts per game, he could use the help. Jennings isn't a very efficient offensive weapon and while Ellis has been tagged as overrated, he can still create good looks. The best part for the Bucks is that both players are enjoying career lows in turnover rate, so its not as if combining the two is going to make for an out of control style. Udoh is a veritable mess offensively and not a great rebounder for his level of athleticism, but he seems to have some value defensively, which will be important in replacing Bogut. At this point, the name Kwame Brown is GM code for "trade filler."

While the Bucks upgraded at 2 and added some potential with Udoh, I really think the Warriors got the better end of the deal. True, they will probably lose a good amount this season. However, they have a top-7 protected pick this year that goes to Utah if they do too well. I think this pick is safe now. Stephen Jackson probably isn't going to produce much now and isn't a factor for the future.

The real victory comes in getting Bogut. Ellis' gaudy scoring totals are nice, but Golden State was always better without him on the court and his goodness of fit with Curry had been doubted from day one. Bogut is a monster defensively, averaging over 2 blocks a game for the past 3 seasons and anchoring one of the league's best defenses last year. Bogut is also a fantastic rebounder (8th among centers who play more than 15 minutes per game). He was never a supreme offensive player, but the Warriors will hope that he bounces back from a career low 44.9 field goal percentage to something in 50s again. I would imagine that as injuries become less of a problem, he will return to form. Paired with David Lee, though, he won't have to be spectacular offensively. He can continue to get tips and flips around the rim while David Lee creates shots from the high post. Bogut will also be able to cover up the defensive shortcomings of Lee.

With a budding young point guard in Curry and a formidable, if earthbound, frontcourt, the Warriors have set up a nice foundation with which to move forward. Now if all these guys can just stay healthy.

How Bad Are The Bobcats?

Five and thirty-one. That's the current record of the Charlotte Bobcats, the NBA's worst team. They have a winning percentage of .139 and trail the second-worst Hornets by 3 full games. Their point differential is a stunning -13.6. Even the 12-win New Jersey Nets of 2 seasons ago only had a -9.1 point differential. Things are rough in the Queen City to say the least.

There is very little hope to be had when you take a closer look at some of the numbers. The Bobcats offense is atrocious, scoring about 92 points per 100 possessions. This is last in the league by almost 4 whole points. It is 7 points worse than the offensively-challenged Milwaukee Bucks of last year. Offense is a little down around the league due to the compressed schedule, but its not quite as drastic a falloff as the Bobcats are making it look. The Cats don't do much on the other end of the floor with a defensive efficiency of 107.7 that is only better than the Nets. The differential between their offensive and defensive efficiency (one of my favorite predictors of success) is -15.77, last in the league by a full 6 points.

The Bobcats shoot poorly (a 48.1 true shooting percentage, well below the league average of 52.2, and 29.9 percent from three) and don't rebound (last in total rebound rate, 28th and 25 in offensive and defensive rate, respectively). They allow a 54.6 opponent true shooting percentage and give up 30 attempts at the rim per game (most in the league by 3 attempts). While they allow opponents to get good looks at the rim, they take a league high 28.1 attempts from 16-23 feet, an inefficient shot to begin with, let alone with a poor shooting team.

Charlotte has only 2 players with a PER above league average (15) in Kemba Walker (15.57) and Derrick Brown (15.14). This, of course, doesn't account for the fact that Walker is flammable on defense. The only teams that come close to this level of roster futility are Toronto and Detroit. However, their players above the 15 watermark play at a much higher level (All-Star caliber in Greg Monroe's case). Another problem could be Corey Maggette, who, with an 11.23 PER, plays 28.2 minutes per game and has a team-high usage rate. There aren't many great options for them to turn to, but perhaps Corey should give it up a little bit more.

Needless to say, the Bobcats are rebuilding. Hopefully with the talented mind of Rich Cho and some lucky bounces from ping pong balls, Charlotte can soon move into relevance and avoid being relocated. In the meantime I'll consider myself lucky that LeaguePass blacks out Bobcats games.

The Bulls' Second Unit

Last year the Bulls finished with the best record in the East and made the conference finals. One obvious reason people pointed to was the MVP-caliber play of superstar Derrick Rose. Rose's excellence was undeniable, but  it was certainly not the only reason the Bulls were lifted into the NBA's elite class. Part of this ascension in Chicago was due to the outstanding defense of the backup unit. 

Chiago's bench lineup of Asik-Gibson-Deng-Brewer-Watson/Rose (the numbers were similar no matter the point guard) was an absolute terror for opposing offenses. Anchored by the Asik-Gibson frontcourt, which barely ever allowed an uncontested attempt at the rim, this unit gave up about 84.5 points per 100 possessions. For context, this figure would lead the league this year in defensive efficiency. By 10 points. The second unit was a full 13 points better than Chicago's overall defensive efficiency, which happened to be the league's best last year. 

Despite a few tweaks to the personnel, this year's bench unit remains a destructive force on offenses around the league. The group of Asik-Gibson-Deng-Korver-Lucas is giving up 65.89 points per 100 possessions. Read that again and take a second to revel in its brilliance. Basically, when a team goes up against this lineup they turn into a bad college offense. This unit is not all too common, seeing only 76 minutes so far this year. One might think this is due to offensive ineffectiveness, but in the limited sample this crowd scores about 113 points per 100 possessions. Nonetheless, this is a formidable lineup that might be worth keeping on the floor a little more. 

So how do they do it? Much of the credit certainly goes to Tom Thibodeau, the master architect of the Celtics' stingy defenses in past years. Also, as stated above, the imposing duo of Omer Asik and Taj Gibson at the rim isn't going to give up too many easy looks at the basket. The Bulls' opponents shoot 57.1 percent at the rim, the second lowest percentage in the league. Deng has grown into one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. He holds opposing small forwards to a 9.1 PER and a 44.3 effective field goal percentage (league average is about 48 percent). If anything is surprising about this new bench unit it is the presence of Kyle Korver and John Lucas. Korver doesn't have the reputation as a wing stopper, but has good size to harass opposing 2's and active hands. Lucas is small, but pesky. He forces opponent point guards to turn the ball over 4 times per 48 minutes. For reference, two time all-defensive first team member Rajon Rondo only forces 3.7. 

When the Bulls play on national television the focus is primarily on Rose. Perhaps this is rightly so. He provides much of the flash and excitement. However, the quiet potency of the bench defense has played a huge part in keeping Chicago atop the NBA standings. 

Heat at Blazers: Rainy Days and Runaways

Before last night, the Heat had not played in a full week and would be without Chris Bosh due to a personal issue. Facing a Portland team whose record has probably underrepresented their true talent level, one could have thought that Miami's 8 game win streak was in trouble. LeBron James would soon put those concerns to rest.

The Heat would run away with this game by running away. Both Miami and Portland have been playing uptempo styles this season ranking 9th and 7th in pace, respectively. Portland's increase in speed has been diametric to their plodding style of old. Miami has also been keeping their foot on the accelerator ever since Erik Spoelstra had his off-season epiphany while studying the University of Oregon's football team. It has indeed worked wonders; the Heat lead the league in offensive efficiency.

So naturally, both teams came out gunning and pushing the tempo. LeBron, despite starting with a missed layup, led the Heat on his way to a 12 point, 4 rebound, and 4 assist first quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge was the go-to man for Portland, hitting 4 of his first 5 shots for 8 points. Wade and James' 22 combined points in the first quarter gave the Heat an 8 point lead.

In a season that has been full of disappointment for former Blazers with Brandon Roy retiring and Greg Oden requiring even more surgery, the second quarter began with a dash of hope. Joel Przybilla played his first minutes of the season after returning to Portland and made a couple of effective defensive plays. He was unable to stop Dwyane Wade, however, who would have a 12 point quarter. LeBron would hit a 3 pointer and then a quick 2 at the end of the quarter on a 2-for-1 to give the Heat an 18 point halftime lead.

The Heat would reamin in control for the rest of the game. Double team traps leading to turnovers (the Heat  had 18 points off of Blazer giveaways) and LeBron's transition savvy would be enough for Miami to hold the lead. Even a 7-0 run for the Blazers in the third quarter only brought the lead down to 18. And just when the Blazers looked like they could cut the deficit to 14 at the beginning of the fourth on a Ray Felton breakaway layup, LeBron came up with one of his trademark chase down blocks. The Blazers only got as close as 10 points before a dagger three pointer from LeBron dashed Portland's hopes.

James finished with 38 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists, and 5 steals. He was aided by Wade's 33 points and 10 assists. Aldridge led the Blazers in scoring with 20 on 10-18 shooting. In a game between two breakneck teams, Portland's 16 turnovers proved to be costly.

Miami stretched its winning streak to 9 and now trails Oklahoma City, which won earlier that night, by just 1 game in the win column. Portland, which was on the second night of a back-to-back, falls to 18-18 and will remain on the outside of the Western Conference playoff picture looking in.

Timberwolves at Lakers: Wolves in Hollywood

The post-All Star Game schedule did not seem kind to the Minnesota Timberwolves. They were slated to start the second half of the season with a back-to-back-to-back, all three games being on the road, with the first two against the teams from Los Angeles. So much for the upstart team from up north.

However, Minnesota came out looking resilient against the Clippers on Tuesday night. After winning their first game against the Clippers in dramatic fashion earlier this season, the Timberwolves scored a more decisive victory with the help of great bench production. Derrick Williams and Michael Beasley both scored 27 points as reserves on a combined 20-25 shooting, including hitting all 7 three pointers. The Wolves' not-oft used lineup of Barea-Webster-Beasley-Williams-Milicic thoroughly outplayed the Clips' starters, scoring 48 points on just 28 possessions.

Act 2 of this Pacific division road trip (Minnesota's in Phoenix tomorrow) brought the Wolves back to Staples Center for a matchup against the Lakers. Los Angeles was playing its first game since All Star weekend, but Kobe Bryant's status was at least somewhat in question due to a concussion. He would play, albeit with a mask protecting his recently broken nose. Unfortunately for Minnesota, they would be missing All Star Kevin Love due to illness. This did not bode well against a team with a big front line that is 2nd in the league in total rebound rate.

The Lakers were indeed able to control the game with their size throughout. The first quarter saw Luke Ridnour having to guard Metta World Peace due to the necessity of putting the more athletic Wes Johnson on Kobe Bryant. World Peace got 2 easy buckets inside early, one of which became an and-1. Bynum would also get it going in the second quarter with a spin around Darko Milicic for a dunk and then an alley-oop finish in the lane from Steve Blake. Bynum finished with 13 points and 13 rebounds.

Pau was quiet in the first half, but scored 11 of his 15 in the second to keep the Lakers out ahead. While the rebounding disparity was not as severe as one might have predicted (48-44 in favor of Los Angeles), the Lakers had 8 blocks to Minnesota's 1, showing an obstructive defensive presence in the lane.

While the lane was occupied in the half court set, much of Minnesota's offense came on transition buckets. Rubio played traffic director, tallying 9 assists, including one that went between Derek Fisher's legs to a streaking Pekovic. Ricky's shooting woes continued, however, as he finished 1 for 8 with just 3 points.

And the man in the mask? He poured in a game-high 31 points on 11-23 shooting, going 9-10 from the line with 7 rebounds and 8 assists.